Forecasting in uncertainty: Too soon to declare the worst is over in the US tech market downturn

Remember the old Road Runner cartoons where Wile E. Coyote runs over a cliff chasing the Road Runner then hangs in midair for a couple of seconds before plummeting? Right now, the tech market reminds me of that cartoon. 

Recent tech vendor earnings and other data suggest the pandemic recession’s damage to the US tech market was not that bad and perhaps improving. For example, in August, Salesforce reported a 29% increase in its quarterly revenues ending in July compared with the same quarter a year ago, and Workday announced a 20% increase in revenues over the same period. In September, Oracle reported that its Fusion and NetSuite ERP subscription revenues in the quarter ending August 2020 were 33% and 25% higher, respectively, than a year ago (though total cloud software services and license support revenues only went up 2%, in line with growth rates over the past year). Adobe’s

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