Forecasting in uncertainty: Too soon to declare the worst is over in the US tech market downturn

Remember the old Road Runner cartoons where Wile E. Coyote runs over a cliff chasing the Road Runner then hangs in midair for a couple of seconds before plummeting? Right now, the tech market reminds me of that cartoon. 

Recent tech vendor earnings and other data suggest the pandemic recession’s damage to the US tech market was not that bad and perhaps improving. For example, in August, Salesforce reported a 29% increase in its quarterly revenues ending in July compared with the same quarter a year ago, and Workday announced a 20% increase in revenues over the same period. In September, Oracle reported that its Fusion and NetSuite ERP subscription revenues in the quarter ending August 2020 were 33% and 25% higher, respectively, than a year ago (though total cloud software services and license support revenues only went up 2%, in line with growth rates over the past year). Adobe’s

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Oasis Petroleum files for bankruptcy after shale downturn

FILE PHOTO: A drilling rig on a lease owned by Oasis Petroleum performs logging operations in the Permian Basin near Wink, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford

(Reuters) – Oasis Petroleum Inc OAS.O filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Wednesday, the latest U.S. shale producer to seek court-aided restructuring as the energy industry reels from an unprecedented crash in oil prices caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The company listed assets and liabilities in the range of $1 billion to $10 billion, according to a court filing.

Oasis said it secured $450 million in debtor-in-possession financing and expects to cut debt by $1.8 billion through the restructuring. It had long-term debt of $2.76 billion with just $77.4 million in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30.

Lockdowns to stem the spread of the virus decimated travel and the demand for fuel, bringing oil drilling to a halt and

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